Glossary · Win Probability
Win Probability
Win probability is a percentage that says how likely a specific deal is to close. The number is the most actionable single signal in real estate productivity software — it tells you, at a glance, which deals deserve your next hour and which ones are about to fall through.
How SmartClose calculates it
Closing Day's SmartClose engine looks at five things for every active deal:
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Stage. A deal in Under Contract is fundamentally more likely to close than one in Appt Set. The model knows this and weights it appropriately.
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Milestone dates. Pre-qual completed? Offer accepted? Inspection done? Financing approved? Each filled-in milestone moves the probability up.
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Time in stage. A deal sitting in Signed for 60 days without a pre-qual is suspicious. A deal in Under Contract for 14 days with all milestones filled is on rails.
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Lead source. Your personal historical conversion rate from each lead source — sphere, referral, Zillow, paid — feeds back into the score.
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Recent momentum. Did anything move forward in the last 3 days? A milestone hit recently is a strong positive signal.
The four color bands
Probabilities are color-coded so you can scan a pipeline board and instantly know what's hot, what's cooling, and what's about to die.
Closing imminent. Don't fumble the handoffs.
Healthy. Keep the next milestone moving.
Stalling. Check the milestone gaps.
Likely to fall through. Disposition or rescue.
Probable Close: rolling probabilities into a year-end GCI
Closing Day combines every active deal's win probability into a single year-end forecast called Probable Close. It's the most honest number you can put against your annual goal:
Raw pipeline GCI (if every deal closed): $300,000
Average win probability across pipeline: 65%
Probable Close (year-end forecast): $195,000
How to use it
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Push the green deals. 85%+ probability deals are about to close. Don't fumble the handoffs (title, escrow, lender). Block calendar time to babysit them.
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Save the amber ones. 30-59% deals are stalling. Read the SmartClose reasoning to see which milestone is missing — almost always something specific.
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Disposition the red. Below 30% is rarely worth fighting. Mark them dead, free up the time, and put the energy into top-of-funnel.
Frequently asked
How accurate is the probability? ▾
For deals past the Signed milestone, SmartClose typically lands within 10–15 percentage points of the actual outcome. For top-of-funnel deals (Appt Set / Appt Met) it's a rougher estimate — the AI is honest about that uncertainty in the reasoning text.
Where do I see the win probability? ▾
Three places: the dashboard's SmartClose rollup (sorted highest to lowest), every transaction card on the visual pipeline (color-coded badge), and the per-deal tile (gauge ring + Your Next Move reasoning + journey timeline). Same number across all three.
Does the broker / coach see it too? ▾
Yes — through Coach View. Brokers, team leads, mentors, and productivity coaches see the same SmartClose data the agent sees, framed for coaching: roster, drill-down per agent, ready-to-use prompts. More on Coach View.
Stop guessing which deals will close.
SmartClose scores every active deal the moment you sign up. 80% off your first month.
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